Feb. 28 NIT Bracketology

UPDATE: If you want the most current NIT bracket, please see this page.

What incredible sorcery does Kyle Smith hold over the NET? Washington St. is a middling (at best) Pac-12 team with a strength of record and wins above bubble of 127. The Cougars don't have a single Quad I win. But they're 53rd in KenPom and the NET as I write this on Sunday evening. 

The reason? A nationally worst 358th ranked "Luck" rating. Six of Washington St.'s 13 losses have come by a single possession (with three others by exactly five points). The Cougars have lost two games (at UCLA, Arizona) by double-digit points — though the UCLA one was a 20-point defeat. 

And it's not just the losses. WSU also has some huge wins. They've won nine games by at least 16 points. Those wins came against teams such as Colorado, which you'll see in the bracket below, and Seattle, my projected WAC champion. Put those facts together and the computers (and honestly anyone who has ever seen Smith coach), expect that the Cougars will turn it around. The problem? It might be too late.

Washington St. finishes the season at Oregon St. tonight (Monday) followed by home games against those same Beavers and the Oregon Ducks. Winning all of them will potentially earn the Cougars an NIT berth, as it's hard to envision the committee leaving out a power conference team with a NET below 60. But it'll be a treacherous road to get there. For now though I have the Cougars (and their rather lackluster resume of actual W/L results) sitting all the way down at an 8 seed. The luck will have to turn around fast.

Last NCAA Teams (in order): San Diego St., North Carolina, SMU, Notre Dame, TCU, Indiana, Wyoming, BYU (I also seem to like Creighton more than consensus).

This NIT bracket includes projections to the end of the regular season. Bubble teams are in italics and are in danger of losing their slot to automatic bids (1 seeds that lose in their conference tournaments). I'm currently projected Seattle as the WAC champion, hence why New Mexico St. appears in this bracket.

NIT Bracket

1. Loyola IL

8. Washington St.

4. Texas A&M

5. New Mexico St.

3. Belmont

6. Vanderbilt

2. Dayton

7. Syracuse

1. Memphis

8. Richmond

4. Mississippi St.

5. Santa Clara

3. St. Bonaventure

6. Drake

2. Virginia

7. St. John's

1. VCU

8. Missouri St.

4. Colorado

5. Utah St.

3. Oklahoma

6. Saint Louis

2. Oregon

7. Ohio

1. Rutgers

8. Furman

4. South Carolina

5. UAB

3. Virginia Tech

6. UNLV

2. Florida

7. UCF

Want to know if your team might be playing in the CBI or The Basketball Classic? Check out Happening Hoops. As conference tournaments continue the next weeks there will be more regular updates to my NIT projections. I'll be posting the most up-to-date brackets here.

Feb. 21 NIT Bracketology

Is the automatic bid apocalypse coming? Conference tournaments start in one week (yes, one week with the first round of the NEC Tournament) and fans of teams towards the bottom of this NIT bracket projection should be paying attention. Parity in smaller conferences along with analytics favorites not being the top ranked teams in their conference mean that we could see a lot of No. 1 seeds falling in 1-bid leagues.

The odds on T-Rank right now range from Vermont’s 86% chance of winning America East (a conference that does things right with home court advantage throughout) all the way down to Davidson having just a 16% chance of winning the Atlantic 10, which will be a bloodbath in Brooklyn. (Note: I’m assuming that Towson ultimately takes the CAA regular season title or the lowest odds would belong to UNCW at 6%.) The Wildcats and Catamounts are both interesting cases. If they were to get thrown into the at-large pool I doubt either would get selected (unfortunately), but they’d make for high NIT seeds. In Davidson’s case in particular it might not even matter in terms of NIT spots, considering its four closest competitors are in the bracket below. Still, any team below the five seed line in this bracket is certainly not safe and it should be a very interesting three weeks until Selection Sunday.

Last 4 NCAA Tournament: Notre Dame, San Diego St., Indiana, SMU

(Also note that I gave the Missouri Valley Conference automatic bid to Loyola IL.)

NIT Bracket

(Bubble teams in italics, because of the automatic bids discussed above. I switched the seed lines for Missouri St. and Santa Clara for geographic convenience.)

1. North Carolina

8. Fresno St.

4. St. Bonaventure

5. St. John's

3. UAB

6. South Carolina

2. Virginia Tech

7. Ohio (I like Ohio's profile, but I don't think the committee will.)

1. Memphis

8. Florida St.

4. Mississippi St.

5. Saint Louis

3. Virginia

6. Vanderbilt

2. VCU

7. Washington St.

1. Florida

8. Missouri St.

4. New Mexico St.

5. Stanford

3. Oklahoma

6. UNLV

2. Oregon

7. Santa Clara

1. Dayton

8. UCF

4. West Virginia

5. Utah St.

3. Kansas St.

6. Colorado

2. Belmont

7. Texas A&M

Not projected to be .500: Penn St., Maryland, Minnesota, Butler, DePaul, Clemson, Northwestern

The .500 "requirement" (it doesn't technically exist anymore, but it still is in practice) also makes the presence of West Virginia (16-15 in regular season per KenPom), Kansas St. (15-15), Oklahoma (16-15), Stanford (16-14), Florida St. (16-14), and Vanderbilt (16-14) in this bracket rather tenuous. There's still a lot of basketball left in power conferences.

A Look At Atlantic 10 Resumes

The college basketball regular season is quickly coming to a close. It's making things more stable in the NIT bracket projections, meaning we have a clearer picture of which teams have a chance to make it to the postseason and which ones are going to be left at home.

The Atlantic 10 though is one of the most fascinating leagues in the country. Davidson currently leads the league standings at 11-2, so every other team has suffered at least three conference losses. It's possible that there won't be an NCAA Tournament at-large bid from the league, but there are currently six teams in the top 100 of the NET.

A top 100 NET ranking also happens to be the cutoff for a reasonable shot at an NIT bid. Let's take a deeper look at the resumes of those six teams and what they still have left to do in order to make it into one of those postseason tournaments in 2022.

Dayton (18-8, NET: 57) — The Flyers are a fascinating case for seeding and bracketology because of what they did at the beginning of non-conference season. Anthony Grant's team suffered three Quad IV losses in a row to UMass Lowell, Lipscomb and Austin Peay at home in the middle of November. Then they dramatically turned things around at went and beat Miami FL, Kansas and Belmont. The disparity between those results speaks to the confusion about how to deal with the Flyers. It's possible the committees focus on the good and try to forget about those three early losses. My guess is that ultimately they're enough to prevent Dayton from making the NCAA Tournament, but it should lead to a high seed in the NIT.

Davidson (21-4, NET: 60) — It's possible that Davison could get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament if the Wildcats don't win the Atlantic 10 tournament. They have a clean resume, with no Quad III or Quad IV losses. They also beat Alabama and won at VCU. There are tough games coming up against Saint Louis on Saturday and in the regular season finale at Dayton. Teams with at resume like Davidson's have made the NCAAs on occasion, but they've also been left out. It'll be a close call come Selection Sunday.  

Saint Louis (17-8, NET: 61) — Before getting swept in a home-and-home against St. Bonaventure I thought Saint Louis had a legitimate shot of making a late-season run into the NCAA Tournament. Now that seems unlikely barring an A-10 tournament title. The Billikens also happen to have one of the hardest remaining schedules in the league. They still play at Davidson, Richmond and Rhode Island and host VCU. That gives them four resume boosting opportunities. Of course, T-Rank currently puts the odds of winning all four of those games at about 8% or so. Barring that, I would expect Saint Louis to end up with at least one home game in the NIT.

VCU (16-7, NET: 66) — Credit to VCU for playing a tough non-conference schedule. Unfortunately the Rams didn't get the signature win that the resume needed to put them over the top in the NCAA Tournament bubble discussion. They did win by a point at Dayton, which is the best win a team can get during Atlantic 10 play, but I doubt that's enough to push them into the Big Dance. Now the problem is that the rest of the conference schedule presents a lot of downside risk with the only potential bonus being a win in their season finale at Saint Louis. Losing any of the other games (@Fordham, Richmond, George Mason, @UMass, Saint Bonaventure) would just add another Quad III or IV loss to the resume. Even if they win those games, VCU's resume looks like an NIT No. 1 or 2 seed.

Richmond (17-9, NET: 86) — Richmond blew its first two chances to get a Quad I win, including at Mississippi St. in overtime during non-conference. Its last chance comes on Friday at VCU. An upset win in that rivalry game would vault the Spiders into serious contention for an NIT at-large bid. Without it? I'm not sure what to do with them. In my last bracket I had the Spiders holding on to a tenuous seven seed, which means they're likely to be knocked out once a few conference champions fall in other 1-bid leagues. Richmond though has an extremely difficult schedule down the stretch in conference play. After VCU they take on Saint Louis and Dayton at home before finishing at St. Bonaventure. All three are opportunities to maybe edge up a seed line or two. It seems likely though that Chris Mooney's team will be sweating things out until the later part of Selection Sunday.

St. Bonaventure (15-7, NET: 87) —A brilliant run through the Charleston Classic is currently the difference between the SBU and Richmond resumes. Those wins over Boise St., Clemson and Marquette are a unicorn ring float holding SBU above water in its chase for a spot in the postseason. The problem for Mark Schmidt is that he only has one more chance in A-10 play to work that sort of magic — at VCU on March 1. The Bonnies also have a tough game at Saint Joseph's, which could result in another Quad III loss. Whether they avoid all the potential pitfalls remaining down the stretch and/or pull off an upset at VCU will determine their postseason fate. The most likely expectation is a chance to play in the NIT, though probably on the road.

Feb. 14 NIT Bracketology

NIT Bracketology for February 14, 2022

Bubble teams in italics. Projected to the end of the regular season.

NIT Bracket:

1. Creighton

8. Cincinnati

4. Saint Louis

5. Utah St.

3. UAB

6. South Carolina

2. Virginia

7. Santa Clara

1. Belmont

8. Missouri St.

4. Mississippi St.

5. Virginia Tech

3. Washington St.

6. New Mexico St.

2. West Virginia

7. Richmond

1. Florida

8. Syracuse

4. Stanford

5. Fresno St.

3. Kansas St.

6. Ohio

2. VCU

7. Northwestern

1. SMU

8. Colorado

4. San Diego St.

5. St. Bonaventure

3. Rutgers

6. Vanderbilt

2. Dayton

7. UCF

Note: I swapped UCF and New Mexico State's seed lines in order to better geographically balance the bracket, which is why UCF is on the 7 line and not on the bubble according to this projection.

Also considered: Florida St., Texas A&M, DePaul, Wichita St., Clemson, St. John's

Feb. 7 NIT Bracketology

NIT Bracketology for February 7, 2022

Bubble teams in italics. Projected to the end of the regular season.

Last 6 in NCAA Tournament: Creighton, Wake Forest, Wyoming, Miami FL, Stanford, Florida

NIT Bracket:

1. Belmont

8. Texas A&M

4. Florida St.

5. Cincinnati

3. Oklahoma

6. Minnesota

2. Saint Louis

7. Ohio

1. Utah St.

8. Colorado

4. Memphis

5. Vanderbilt

3. San Diego St.

6. Virginia Tech

2. VCU

7. UCF

1. North Carolina

8. South Carolina

4. Rutgers

5. West Virginia

3. SMU

6. Syracuse

2. Michigan

7. St. John's

1. Washington St.

8. Santa Clara

4. Dayton

5. Virginia

3. Fresno St.

6. Richmond

2. North Texas

7. Wichita St.

Teams that made me think: Louisiana Tech, Grand Canyon, Drake, Furman, Missouri St., Northwestern, Clemson, DePaul

Not projected to be .500: Kansas St., Mississippi, Penn St., Tulane

Want to know more? Check out the About page. Have thoughts? Comments and tweets welcome.

Feb. 1 NIT Bracketology

NIT Bracketology for February 1, 2022

Bubble teams in italics

Projected to the end of the regular season:

1. UAB
8. Missouri St.
4. Florida St.
5. Texas A&M
3. SMU
6. Colorado
2. Virginia Tech
7. Richmond

1. Belmont
8. St. John's
4. Notre Dame
5. Fresno St.
3. Stanford
6. Clemson
2. VCU
7. Furman

1. Utah St.
8. Santa Clara
4. Dayton
5. Virginia
3. Memphis
6. Minnesota
2. Washington St.
7. Ohio

1. San Diego St.
8. New Mexico St.
4. Creighton
5. Cincinnati
3. Saint Louis
6. UCF
2. West Virginia
7. South Carolina